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Returns
cohort aged 30 days · 395 units back · $8,908 refunded but $16,754 lost · 2 above category
cohortsold 30–60 days ago
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measured against the cohort that has aged, never against the calendar month
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UID Product Sold 30d Back Rate Cat. avg Trend Reason Refunded True cost Per unit Resell What it means
PB345 Light-up rubber duck, 3-pack 2,840 96 3.4% 4.1% steady no longer needed $1,248 $2,410 $25.10 38% normal for the category
PB106 Slant board, adjustable 410 58 14.1% 5.2% rising not as described $2,842 $5,180 $89.30 72% the listing over-promises
A return rate is a listing metric before it is a quality metric. This one went from 5.4% to 14.1% in the three weeks after the title was rewritten, and the top reason changed with it — from “no longer needed” to “not as described”. Nothing about the product changed. Seventy-two per cent of them come back sellable, which is the signature of an expectation problem rather than a fault: people are opening the box, finding something other than what they thought they bought, and sending it back unused.
PB224 Therapy putty, 4-pack 3,120 74 2.4% 3.8% falling no longer needed $888 $1,704 $23.00 12% cannot be resold once opened
SW043 Baby scale weighing tray 1,240 108 8.7% 6.9% rising defective or broken $3,240 $6,120 $56.70 9% a real fault — same crack, 3 photos
The refund is roughly half of what a return costs. The outbound fulfilment fee is spent and does not come back. The return has its own fee. Somebody inspects it, and most units cannot go out again as new — putty is 12% resellable, a scale tray with a crack is 9%. So the True cost column is refund plus both fees plus the written-down unit, and it is about double the refund line every time. A returns report built on refunds alone understates the problem by half, which is why nobody acts on it.
PB211 Sensory bin scoops, 6-pack 980 18 1.8% 4.1% steady no longer needed $204 $392 $21.80 61% nothing
PB038 Coil spring walking toy 1,910 41 2.1% 4.1% steady arrived damaged $486 $948 $23.10 22% packaging — 4 from one FC
And the rate on any young month reads low, for the same reason profit does. A return arrives about three weeks after the sale, so a month that is half over shows returns against sales that have not had time to come back. The rate is calculated against the cohort that has aged, not against the calendar month, and the header says which window it used — otherwise every month looks like an improvement until it is closed.
7 shown · 395 units back · $8,908 refunded · $16,754 true cost · 1 listing problem · 1 real fault
the refund is about half of it; the fees and the written-down unit are the rest
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