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Committed, unpaid 5
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Payments · the next thirteen weeks
$130,820 already out in deposits · low point $131,926 on Aug 30 · the real one is in November
windownext 13 weeks
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Schedule a wire
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Thirteen weeks, in and out thousands · payouts land fortnightly, suppliers do not care
the deep week is Chinese New Year, and it has to be wired in November
now CNY order — wire by Dec 20 Aug Sep Oct Nov in out
next 13 weeks
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balances assume expected payouts arrive on time — the ones that can slip say so
When and what
Money
How sure
What happens if it moves
Date What Kind Out In Balance after How certain Ties to If it slips
● Aug 20 Amazon US payout marketplace — $62,400 $188,240 expected settlement lands two days late about once a quarter
● Aug 27 Freight, Container 1 freight $8,420 — $179,820 committed C1 · NGB-4471 booking is already made
● Aug 30 PO 1308 balance on B/L supplier $47,894 — $131,926 committed PO 1308 goods do not sail until it clears
● Sep 03 Amazon US payout marketplace — $58,900 $190,826 expected settlement reserve can hold back 10% without notice
● Sep 12 Duty and customs entry, C1 duty $4,102 — $186,724 estimated C1 entry HS codes without a rate default to 7.5%
Three certainties, and they are never added into one number. Committed is a wire somebody has already agreed to send and it will happen. Expected is a marketplace payout, which arrives on a schedule Amazon can change without telling anybody and can be held back by a reserve. Estimated is a duty entry computed from HS codes, some of which fall back to a default rate. A single “projected balance” that mixes all three reads as a fact and is a guess, so the balance column is shown per row and the header states what it assumes.
● Sep 20 PO 1315 deposit, 30% supplier $18,240 — $168,484 committed PO 1315 delays the ready date by however long it waits
● Oct 05 Walmart + Target payout marketplace — $21,480 $189,964 expected settlement Target pays 30 days after the month
● Oct 18 Freight, Container 2 freight $8,420 — $181,544 committed C2 · YTN-8802 booking is already made
● Nov 14 Q1 order deposits, 4 suppliers supplier $52,000 — $134,880 estimated — miss it and Q1 arrives in April
The Chinese New Year wall is a November cash decision, not a February inventory problem. The factories close Feb 10 to 24 and stop taking new work well before that, so anything wanted in Q1 has to be ordered by about Dec 20 — which means deposits of roughly $52,000 leaving in mid-November, in the same weeks the balance is already low. By the time the shelves look empty in March the decision was four months ago. That is why a cash board runs thirteen weeks forward rather than showing a balance today.
● — Deposits already out, in factories committed $130,820 — — committed 9 open POs not cash, not inventory, on no report as either
10 dated items · $139,076 committed out · $142,780 expected in · $130,820 already in factories · low point Aug 30
committed, expected and estimated are three different things and never one total
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